Multi-Sport Analytics · Live Track Record · Free Signals

THE SHEET · —

SEASON LEDGER · UNDER WATCH — · YRFI —

Every pick posted before the game. Every result graded in public. No deleted losses — the math answers, not the marketing.

TODAY'S SHEET

The board, graded in public.

Model line against the market line, every disagreement on the record. Lines move — sport pages carry the live detail.

	EVENT	MODEL	CALL
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THE LEDGER · FLAT 1u · SINCE MAY

Receipts.

Running totals, winners and funerals alike. Full table on the results page.

Under WatchMLB TOTALS · SEASON COMPLETE	—
YRFI AlertMLB 1ST INNING · SEASON COMPLETE	—
NFL ValueSPREADS/ML/TOTALS · IN SEASON	—
CFB ValueSPREADS · IN SEASON	—
Home Dog WatchRETIRED 9/12 · RECORD STAYS	—
EPL 1X2RETIRED 10/10 · RECORD STAYS	18–81 · deep red

We retired two losers this season and printed the records anyway. The EPL model paper-trades in the back room — positive closing-line value over 100 signals buys it back in. The post-mortem →

CLOSING LINE VALUE · THE GATE METRIC

+0.00PUBLISHING AS IT GRADES

Every flag is scored against two independent closes — the sportsbook line and the prediction market. If the flags don't beat the close, you'll read it here first.

THE WIRE

Latest.

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The sheet, daily.

The graded board in your inbox every morning. Free. Unsubscribe whenever.

2026 Season · Next Race

Next GP

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Round

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Race Day

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Format

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🏆 WIN PROB LEADER

—

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🥉 PODIUM LOCK

—

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💰 TOP VALUE

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🎯 VALUE PLAYS

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model edge vs market

PROBABILITY HEATMAP — TIER 2 SIGNALS

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Round 4 · 2026 Season · Pre-Race

NEXT RACE

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2026 WINS

            RUS: 1ANT: 1
          

R3

RACE

Mar 29

R4 · SPRINT

RACE

May 3

R5 · SPRINT

CANADA

May 24

R6

BARCELONA

Jun 7

RACE WIN

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TOP PICK

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Wins Leader · 2026

2026

Reg Reset Year

Win Probability

Pit Strategy

Circuit Analysis

Value Board

Value Map

Race Win Probability · Model vs. Market

↓ Export CSV

#

Driver

Model %

Book %

Edge

Signal

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Race Analytics

↗ Full View

Win Probability

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Safety Car Probability

—%

likely

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Optimal Pit Windows

LAP 1 ──────────────── 56

ANT

L18–25

LEC

L13–20

PIA

L16–23

VER

L20–29

Tire Strategy

1-STOP · 54% prob

M

─pit─

H

2-STOP · 31% prob

S

──

M

──

H

SC-triggered 15% — soft restart favours Ferrari launch

Next Race · Loading

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07

HRS

42

MIN

18

SEC

—

RND

Model Accuracy · 2026

50%

TOP-3

—

Win

—

Podium

2

Races

Top Value Markets

All →

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Data Stack

INGEST

OpenF1 · FastF1 · Ergast · Betfair · Kinesis

PROCESS

Databricks Delta Lake · dbt · Silver tables

MODEL

LightGBM · MLflow · Feature Store · Gold

SERVE

AWS Lambda · API Gateway · This site

Cup Series · Loading...

NASCAR

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Win Probability

Value Board

Track Notes

Value Map

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Total Laps

—

HP Package

—

Play Signals

—

FADE Signals

Race Win Probability · Model vs Market

CAR

DRIVER

MODEL%

BOOK ODDS

EDGE

SIGNAL

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This Week's Signals

Track Intel

Race Info

MLB 2026 · Loading...

MLB · Today

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Games Today

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Value Signals

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Fades

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ML Season ROI

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YRFI

—

Home Dog

—

Today's Games

Moneyline

Totals

Props

⚡ Live Tracker

SIGNALS: STRONG VALUE6%+ edge VALUE4-6% LEAN2-4% · not a play FADEoverpriced 6%+ PASSno edge NO LINEawaiting odds CONTEXTdisplay only

TODAY'S GAMES · MONEYLINE · TOTAL · NRFI · STARTER PREVIEW

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YRFI

STRIKEOUTS

HR · BATTERS

🎯 HR WATCH

BULLPEN

—

STRONG YRFI HIT %

—

UNITS · FLAT 1U

—

PLAYS GRADED

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TODAY'S PLAYS

RECENT YRFI PICKS · GRADED

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HOW THIS MODEL THINKS

Park factor is the strongest signal — Coors Field and Sutter Health Park (Athletics) drive most STRONG plays. Books know this too, so edge is limited. Use these picks as confirmation of your own analysis, not as "find the line they missed." Sample size: 16 STRONG picks graded so far in 2026. We'll re-evaluate at 50+ picks.

ONE IS ENOUGH.

LIVE

MLB TODAY'S PLAYS

MODEL VALUE + MARKET EDGES · WHAT WE'RE ON

STRONG VALUE VALUE HOME DOG YRFI

ONE IS
ENOUGH.

SPORTS · ANALYTICS · INDEPENDENT

ONEISENOUGH.COM

          Green = value · Red = overpriced · Every signal tracked publicly
        

◆ The Receipts · Every Call, Graded in Public

2025-26 · Knockout Stage

Champions League

UEFA · Dixon-Coles model · market-edge signals

Fixtures

—

Play Signals

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Updated

—

⭐ Champions League

All Matches

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE · MARKET EDGE MODEL · FAIR PROB VS BOOK IMPLIED (VIG ADJUSTED)

HOME
AWAY
MATCH
SIGNAL ODDS
SIGNAL

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Top Signals · This Round

UCL 2025-26

TOURNAMENT INFO

StageQuarter-Finals

QF Leg 1Apr 7-8, 2026

QF Leg 2Apr 14-15, 2026

FinalMay 30 · Budapest

UCL model includes aggregate context — second leg pressure, must-win situations, and defensive approach all factored in.

COUGAR'S CORNER 🐆

EXPERT OVERRIDE · THIS WEEK

PSG to advance

"Liverpool are tired. Mbappé is angry about something. PSG in 90."

MODEL

—

COUGAR

—

            One override per week. Gut feeling vs algorithm.

            Transparency is everything.

Model Notes

· Market-anchored blend (10% model / 90% market).
· PLAY signal requires ≥4% edge after vig removal.
· FADE signal requires ≥6% market overweight.
· Odds: The Odds API · US bookmakers.
· Refresh: Run Notebook 25 in Databricks.

2026 THOROUGHBRED SEASON · LIVE MODEL

KENTUCKY DERBY
2026

CHURCHILL DOWNS · 1¼ MILES · $5,000,000 PURSE · MAY 2, 2026

NEXT · DERBY PREP

Arkansas Derby

Apr 11 · Oaklawn Park

DERBY PREP

Blue Grass Stakes

Apr 11 · Keeneland

FEATURED RACE

Kentucky Derby

May 2 · Churchill Downs

TRIPLE CROWN

Preakness Stakes

May 16 · Pimlico

TRIPLE CROWN

Belmont Stakes

Jun 6 · Belmont Park

DERBY CONTENDERS · MODEL WIN PROBABILITIES

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Kentucky Derby

Wood Memorial

Santa Anita Derby

Arkansas Derby

Blue Grass

#
HORSE · TRAINER / JOCKEY
WIN%
BEYER
M/L
EDGE
SIGNAL

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⚠ POST POSITIONS NOT YET DRAWN — Bias adjustment pending. Draw expected Wednesday April 29.

Derby Value Markets

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Derby Weather · Churchill Downs

Fast

Track Condition

72°F

Forecast Temp

            Forecast becomes reliable April 27 (5 days before Derby). Model adjusts probabilities automatically based on track condition.
          

MUDDERS (benefit if wet)

Coal Battle · Owen Almighty · Render Judgment

FAST TRACK ONLY (avoid if wet)

Caviar Dreams · Journalism · Chunk of Gold

Post Position Bias · Churchill Downs

Historical win rates by post — 1¼ miles dirt

1

2

3

4

5

6

7★

8

9

10

            Post 7 is the best in Derby history (+42% ROI). Posts 1-4 are disadvantaged by traffic on the first turn. Posts 15-20 face an extreme distance penalty at the longer distance.
          

Trainer Angles · Churchill Downs

Brad Cox — 23.3% CD

Horses: Render Judgment, Strong Opinion · Best trainer ROI at Churchill Downs +14%

Bob Baffert — 21.0% CD

Horse: Chunk of Gold · 7 Derby wins, highest win rate at Churchill Downs +8% ROI

Todd Pletcher — 17.9% CD

Horses: Citizen Bull, Locked, Majestic Eagle · 52 Derby starts, 2 wins. High volume trainer.

Steve Asmussen — 20.0% CD

Horse: Coal Battle · Most wins all-time as trainer. 18 Derby starts, 0 wins — watch for breakout.

Model Methodology

18 features including Beyer Speed Figures, pace ratings, trainer/jockey stats at Churchill Downs, post position bias, class level, and Derby points.
Edge calculation compares model win probability to morning line implied probability adjusted for 17.25% takeout.
Updates: Post draw (Apr 29) · Final scratches (May 1) · Race day morning line

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Monte Carlo Live

FIFA World Cup 2026

USA · Canada · Mexico · 48 teams · Dixon-Coles ELO Monte Carlo

Countdown

—

Simulations

10,000

Value Signals

—

Overview

Groups

Simulator

Path to Final

Matchday

OUTRIGHT WINNER · MONTE CARLO WIN %

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#
TEAM · GROUP
MODEL
MARKET
ODDS
EDGE
SIGNAL

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Value Markets

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Host Nation Edge

🇺🇸 USA · Group D

vs Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye · SoFi, MetLife, AT&T. Model boosts λ ×1.15 for home crowd.

🇲🇽 Mexico · Group A

vs S.Africa, S.Korea, Czech Rep. · Opens at Estadio Azteca June 11. Massive home support.

🇨🇦 Canada · Group B

vs Bosnia, Qatar, Switzerland · Games in Toronto + Vancouver. 2nd ever WC appearance.

Model

Dixon-Coles Monte Carlo — 10,000 full tournament simulations. Each of the 104 matches is simulated using ELO-derived expected goals with bivariate Poisson + low-score (tau) correction.
Host advantage baked into expected goals (×1.15 scoring multiplier for USA/Mexico/Canada home games).
Knockout resolution: 90 min → extra time (⅓ scoring rate) → penalties (slight ELO edge).
Edge calculation: model win% minus de-vigged market probability (raw implied normalized to 100%).

2026 NCAA TOURNAMENT · IN PROGRESS

MARCH MADNESS
2026

LUCAS OIL STADIUM · INDIANAPOLIS · APRIL 6, 2026 · CHAMPIONSHIP

64

TEAMS LEFT

—

PLAY SIGNALS

18d

TO FINAL

Duke

MODEL FAVORITE

Championship Odds

First Round

By Region

Upset Picks

#
TEAM · SEED / REGION
WIN%
MKT%
ODDS
EDGE
SIGNAL

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Championship Value Board

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Tournament Schedule

${[ ["First Round","Mar 19–20","🔴 LIVE"], ["Second Round","Mar 21–22","⏳"], ["Sweet 16","Mar 27–28","⏳"], ["Elite Eight","Mar 29–30","⏳"], ["Final Four","Apr 4","⏳"], ["Championship","Apr 6","⏳"], ].map(([r,d,s])=>`

${r}

${d}

${s}

`).join('')}

Key Injury Watch

DUKE — CALEB FOSTER

Guard injury — status uncertain. Model reduces Duke win prob by 3% if out

MICHIGAN — L.J. CASON

Guard injury looms large — Wolverines depth tested in tournament

GONZAGA — BRADEN HUFF

Out first two rounds — Zags offense significantly diminished without him

Model Methodology

          Features: KenPom efficiency, seed, SOS, recent form, injury adjustments, bracket path difficulty. Edge = model win prob vs sportsbook implied prob. PLAY threshold: edge > 3% + Kelly > 0.3%. Tournament in progress — model updates after each round.
        

2026-27 · Premier League

Premier League

England · xG model · matchday value signals

Leader

—

— pts

Title Gap

9 pts

Play Signals

—

Games Left

7

League Table

GW Predictions

xG Analysis

Value Board

Top Scorers

Title Race

FPL Fantasy

SIGNALS: PLAY4%+ edge vs book FADEoverpriced by book PASSno edge found

          Dixon-Coles Poisson model · Attack/defense ratings from rolling xG · Home advantage adjusted · Edge = model probability − vig-adjusted book implied probability · Market-anchored (10% model / 90% market early season) · PLAY signal requires ≥4% edge after vig removal · Odds from The Odds API (FanDuel, DraftKings, Bet365)
        

GAMEWEEK PREDICTIONS · DIXON-COLES POISSON MODEL · HOME ADVANTAGE ADJUSTED

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This GW · Value Markets

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xG Regression Watch

TEAMS OVERPERFORMING xG — FADE NEXT 3-5 MATCHES

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Title Odds

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Relegation Zone

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◆ The Receipts · Every Call, Graded in Public

2026-27 · La Liga

La Liga

Spain · xG model · matchday value signals

Leader

—

— pts

Title Gap

4 pts

Play Signals

—

Games Left

10

League Table

MD Predictions

xG Analysis

Value Board

Top Scorers

Title Race

SIGNALS: PLAY4%+ edge vs book FADEoverpriced by book PASSno edge found

          Dixon-Coles Poisson model · Attack/defense ratings from rolling xG · Home advantage adjusted · Accent-normalized team matching · Edge = model probability − vig-adjusted book implied probability · Market-anchored (10% model / 90% market) · PLAY signal requires ≥4% edge · League avg goals: La Liga 1.42 per team
        

MATCHDAY PREDICTIONS · DIXON-COLES POISSON MODEL · HOME ADVANTAGE ADJUSTED

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This MD · Value Markets

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xG Regression Watch

TEAMS OVERPERFORMING xG — FADE NEXT 3-5 MATCHES

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Title Odds

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Relegation Zone

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◆ The Receipts · Every Call, Graded in Public

ADMIN ONLY · MODEL RESULTS TRACKER

RESULTS
TRACKER

LOG RESULTS AFTER EACH RACE / MATCH / RACE DAY · TRACKS MODEL ACCURACY OVER TIME

PLAY SIGNALS

—

WIN RATE

—

BREAK-EVEN

52.4%

NET UNITS

—

ROI

—

AVG ODDS

—

FADES CORRECT

—

      WIN RATE = PLAY signals only (board rules: no fades, no draws, nothing +400 or longer) · NET UNITS = 1 unit per signal at book odds · ROI = net return on total wagered · FADES = faded team lost · MLB stats reflect moneyline market only — totals & NRFI tracking coming soon
      
    

All Sports

F1

EPL

La Liga

MLB

Horses

World Cup

AUTOMATED RECONCILIATION

          Results auto-populated by Notebook 13 after each gameweek or daily slate.

          Run schedule: EPL → Monday · F1 → Tuesday · MLB → Daily · Horse → Race day

          Each run fetches actual scores, matches against saved predictions, scores every call.

DATE
SPORT
MATCH · MODEL CALL
SCORE
RESULT
O/U
xG ERR
GW

No results logged yet. Add your first result above.

Performance by Sport

Log results to see breakdown

Monthly Win Rate

Log results to see trend

Best Calls

Wins at longest odds appear here

Export & Info

            Data source: S3 · auto-updated by Notebook 13

            Path: api/results/history.json

            Updates: Monday (EPL) · Tuesday (F1) · Daily (MLB)

IPL 2026 · INDIAN PREMIER LEAGUE · LIVE

INDIAN PREMIER
LEAGUE

Match winner predictions for every IPL match. Squad-strength model, transparent calibration, public track record. Trained on 1,200+ matches of ball-by-ball data.

RECENT MATCHES — 2026 SEASON

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Analysis · Picks · Opinions

The Chalk Line

Data-driven takes · no narratives · no hype

All

Premier League

Formula 1

Horse Racing

Analysis

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Latest Picks

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Model Track Record

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Topics

Premier League Formula 1 Horse Racing xG Analysis Bankroll Strategy World Cup